A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
